Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.101102 1.284888 1.489483 1.734098 2.018619 2.339158 2.727779
2024-12-29 0.851459 1.109153 1.428369 1.852753 2.402300 3.090243 4.017707
2025-01-05 0.658493 0.927179 1.286088 1.800372 2.518683 3.487166 4.894158
2025-01-12 0.528004 0.792096 1.167211 1.738523 2.587132 3.802388 5.678376
2025-01-19 0.435626 0.690394 1.072014 1.684742 2.644603 4.092653 6.448347
2025-01-26 0.384475 0.639932 1.041158 1.716429 2.825637 4.578425 7.566187
2025-02-02 0.359648 0.625918 1.062555 1.829588 3.145030 5.313153 9.169039
2025-02-09 0.328270 0.595461 1.051490 1.885065 3.372912 5.922791 10.639379
2025-02-16 0.296868 0.559805 1.025708 1.909627 3.547466 6.458776 12.045581
2025-02-23 0.266622 0.521517 0.989413 1.908827 3.673567 6.920194 13.370001
2025-03-02 0.238519 0.483071 0.947305 1.890457 3.762393 7.320479 14.625210
2025-03-09 0.218424 0.457277 0.925413 1.907167 3.918768 7.862828 16.216970
2025-03-16 0.191229 0.414067 0.865231 1.842419 3.910507 8.095125 17.244571
2025-03-23 0.185660 0.415314 0.895093 1.967148 4.307992 9.190711 20.198398
2025-03-30 0.164435 0.379708 0.843410 1.911509 4.315798 9.481601 21.480019
2025-04-06 0.145186 0.345710 0.790593 1.845863 4.292109 9.700425 22.628842
2025-04-13 0.129027 0.316491 0.744447 1.788781 4.279400 9.939913 23.852548
2025-04-20 0.120964 0.305298 0.737810 1.822412 4.480544 10.683892 26.342787
2025-04-27 0.119026 0.308764 0.765852 1.942517 4.902828 11.989428 30.342160
2025-05-04 0.113403 0.302187 0.768862 2.001398 5.182746 12.990279 33.722879
2025-05-11 0.106431 0.291144 0.759405 2.027466 5.383369 13.821543 36.782923
2025-05-18 0.098750 0.277132 0.740585 2.026617 5.514025 14.492572 39.512773
2025-05-25 0.090924 0.261639 0.715962 2.007120 5.592887 15.040519 41.987783